New data reveals Irish renewables auction fell short of critical 2030 targets

The provisional results of Ireland’s fourth Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS 4) auction showed good progress. However, new analysis from Cornwall Insight reveals that this level of procurement falls short of what’s needed for the government to meet its ambitious 2030 electricity decarbonisation target. Cornwall Insight data shows that based on the already existing and contracted capacity, approximately 4GW of solar will be online by 2030, and just over 5GW of onshore wind. Despite the progress in the latest auction, this would leave the government 4GW’s short of targets for both technologies. A total of 17GW of installed onshore wind and solar capacity is needed by 2030, if Ireland is going to achieve its target of sourcing 80% of electricity from renewables by the end of the decade.

The RESS 4 auction saw solar secure nearly double the capacity of the previous year - 960MW, up from 498 MW in RESS3. Onshore wind also saw a boost, with 374MW secured, more than double the 148MW procured in 2023. While this is positive, there are only two, at a push three, RESS auctions left to secure the necessary renewables, meaning if auctions continue at this rate, the government will fall short on its decarbonisation target.

The Department of Energy, Climate and Communications (DECC) implemented some positive changes to this auction round, including allowing generators to delay their required operational date by up to two years if issues related to grid connections or judicial reviews of planning permission arise, helping to see competition rise and strike prices fall1. However, it is clear there is more to be done to rebuild momentum in the onshore wind sector and incentive further investment at the scale needed.

There was disappointment elsewhere with no hybrid projects awarded a contract, confusion over what is defined as a hybrid project and a lack of a national framework have been cited as key reasons.

Figure 1: Ireland RESS 4 auction results compared to renewable electricity targets for 2030 set out in the Climate Actions Plans

Source: Cornwall Insight

Ratnottama Sengupta, Senior Consultant at Cornwall Insight said:

“An increase in renewables procured in this year's auction, following last year’s disappointing outcome, shows that the government is listening and responding to industry concerns. While this auction will help bolster the number of renewables coming onto the grid and narrow the gap between current levels and our elusive 2030 targets, it is clear we are still playing catch-up.

“While it is important to recognise the achievements in the latest auction, if we are to reach the 2030 renewables goal, we need to ramp up the momentum in upcoming auctions. We cannot afford to become complacent. It is clear the auction structure needs to be made more attractive to investors if they want to reach their target.

“The uncertainty surrounding hybrid projects only adds to the challenge. These projects could be a game-changer for hitting renewable targets while ensuring our flexibility needs are met, but if the Department of Energy, Climate and Communications wants to encourage hybrid projects, they must examine current barriers and consider whether hybrid projects need to sit outside RESS or as a separate pot within the auction. Without a clear national framework and alignment on how hybrid assets are defined and how they operate it is clear Ireland will be missing out on this additional capacity.

“It is crucial to stay optimistic and acknowledge the growth in renewables as a positive start. However, at this current rate, the government will fall short of its bold targets.”

Reference:

1. Offshore wind has a separate ORESS auction. ORESS 2.1 is scheduled for 2024 or 2025 and is set to procure up to 900MW offshore wind.

2. Current capacity includes: • non-RESS capacity built prior to the auctions • non-RESS capacity built in parallel the RESS auctions have begun • RESS capacity that has been built since the auctions have taken place. RESS1 is the only auction that has passed it’s ‘final deadline’ for generators be commercially operational by. There will be a slight cross over between RESS secured and total capacity as some of the capacity procured will now be operational.

3. Amounts procured in each RESS auction split by RESS 1, 2 and 3

Onshore wind RESS 1 - 479MW RESS 2 - 414MW RESS 3 - 148MW

Solar RESS 1 -796MW RESS 2- 1.53GW RESS 3 – 498MW

Ends

Notes to Editors

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