New data reveals that the queue for battery energy storage systems (BESS) seeking grid connections by 2030 has surged to more than double the grid's projected required capacity. With the connections queue for 2035 quadruple the target capacity. Analysis from Cornwall Insight highlights the growing pressure on the government and the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to decide which projects will move forward, which will not, and how they will facilitate this process.
The Government's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (CP 2030) sets out the target capacity ranges for specific technologies. Phase 1 sets out the target capacity range for 2030, which says the required BESS capacity will be 27GW, split over distribution and transmission levels. While Phase 2 provides a 10-year view out to 2035, with an upper capacity of 29GW, but this uplift is seen exclusively at the distribution level.
In contrast to the slow increase in connections capacity, build out of BESS capacity is expected to be rapid and significant. Specifically, the connections queue for BESS out to 2030 is 61GW, more than double the respective target capacity range, while the queue out to 2035 is 129GW, more than quadruple what is sought by then.
As more intermittent renewable energy sources join the grid, batteries will play an increasingly vital role in supporting stability of our electricity system. The idea of viable projects stuck in limbo and speculative and unviable projects clogging up the queue, will have been a concern for many investors and Ofgem’s minded-to decision last week on NESO’s connection reform plan offers some reassurance, promising a more streamlined, fast-track approach to grid connections. This could lead to more efficient network planning and greater investor confidence. However, given the sheer number of battery projects awaiting connection, many projects may still face delays, with connections unlikely before 2035 or beyond.
A small number of BESS projects will be protected from alignment with the CP 2030 Action Plan capacity ranges. Specifically, BESS assets which have a Capacity Market contract (14GW), those which are contracted to connect by the end of 2026 (4.5GW), and those which have already significantly progressed having obtained planning consents or under construction (21.5GW). However, as many projects fall into more than one category the protection levels are smaller than they may appear.
Irrespective of connection date, altogether, there is 221GW of BESS capacity in the full connections queue. Target capacity ranges beyond 2035 will be established in the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP), expected in late 2026. It is expected that the SSEP may not allow for the inclusion of much more additional capacity by 2050 - the latest Future Energy Scenarios 2024 Report currently sets the BESS capacity by 2050 at 29-36GW, depending on the pathway.
Figure 1: Connections queue compared to required capacities 2030 and 2035
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Source: Cornwall Insight and NESO
James Lomax, Analyst at Cornwall Insight said:
"Several challenges threaten 2030 clean power goals, with the connection queue being a major hurdle. Ofgem's minded-to decision on approving NESO's connection reform plan gives clarity on the process that will be used to determine which projects move forward and which do not. However, given the rapid expansion of battery energy storage over and above forecast connections capacity, and now the proposed decision on how to prioritise and streamline connections, it could well be that more than 100GW of BESS that wants to connect to the network will not get the option to until at least 2035 or even much later.
“If an asset can’t connect to the grid, it simply can’t contribute. While NESO and Ofgem have set out some clarity on which projects will be protected and given a place in the connection queue, the challenge will now be building the infrastructure to allow them to connect. In order to meet the Clean Power 2030 capacity targets we would need to connect assets to the network on average 2.5x quicker than we have over the past five years."
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Notes to Editors
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If an asset can’t connect to the grid, it simply can’t contribute. While NESO and Ofgem have set out some clarity on which projects will be protected and given a place in the connection queue, the challenge will now be building the infrastructure to allow them to connect.
James Lomax Analyst
