The government has today unveiled the results of its Sixth Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction (AR6), with 131 projects securing 9.6GW of renewable capacity. A substantial increase from the 3.7GW secured at last year’s auction.
Today’s results are reflective of both the record high budget that was set at £1.56bn (2011-12 money), but also the rising cost of renewables projects over the past three years.
The greatest success came from solar PV and offshore wind, which saw 3.3GW and 4.9GW secured respectively. Despite the positive results and improvements on AR5, there remains a significant shortfall against new government targets.
Key outcomes:
Offshore wind: 4.9GW of new offshore wind capacity securing agreements brings the estimated total capacity built or contracted to be built under the CfD (or previous schemes) to an estimated 28.6GW. While this marks progress, it remains significantly below the ~55GW target set by the new Labour government as part of its ambition to quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2030.
The prices achieved in this round (£58.87/MWh for brand new capacity and £54.23/MWh for ‘Permitted Reduction’ capacity, 2012 prices) underscore the value of competitive auctions, with offshore wind strike prices for new build sites coming in more than 19% below the cap of £73/MWh (in 2012 prices). However, these prices are still well above the record lows of £37.35/MWh (2012 prices) seen in AR4. Although it’s worth noting 1.4GW of this capacity terminated their contracts due to insufficient pricing.
Floating Offshore Wind: In a significant boost, floating offshore wind secured 400MW of contracts in AR6 with the largest commercial floating offshore wind project in the world. Despite this success, the awarded capacity falls short of Labour's 5GW 2030 target outlined in its Green Prosperity Plan. Its price of £139.93/MWh (2012 prices) remains well above fixed bottom offshore wind sites due to the currently less established nature of the technology.
Solar Power: Solar emerged as one of the most successful technologies in AR6, securing 3.3GW. This achievement is attributed to a strong pipeline of assets across many GB regions and its competitive edge over onshore wind. Combining operational and future CfD contracted capacity, total GB solar PV capacity is expected to reach at least 23.3GW. However, this remains well below the 50GW target set in Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan. Solar PV achieved a price of £50.07/MWh (2012 money). This is above the prices achieved in both AR4 (which was £45.99/MWh) and AR5 (which was £47.00/MWh, the maximum allowable price for the auction), reflecting the increase in maximum allowed prices in AR6, trends of increased development costs, and the larger budget and subsequent capacity levels procured.
Onshore Wind: Despite some successes, onshore wind saw comparatively smaller volumes awarded (1.0GW), with the majority of contracts going to Scottish sites. This reflects the challenges the technology faces, including stringent planning restrictions in England since 2015 and the relatively high network charging environment in Scotland making the projects less competitive. Recent changes to planning rules for onshore wind by the new government may alter this trend, though it may take time to see these effects. Just one English onshore wind farm secured a contract, the 8MW Alaska Wind Farm, against 18 Scottish sites (909MW) and three Welsh sites (72.6MW). Onshore wind achieved a price of £50.90/MWh (2012 money), slightly below the £52.29/MWh (2012 money) in AR5 but well above the AR4 price of £42.47/MWh, also reflective of rising trends in development costs over the last few years. The relatively low capacity of onshore wind to secure contracts meant that only the cheapest and most competitive sites were successful.
Tidal stream: Tidal saw some success, securing 28MW. The price for tidal stream (at £172.00/MWh, 2012 money) has come down since the previous auction, by 13% on AR5, but remains well above those for more established technologies due to their more nascent development status.
Consumer costs: The budget used for this auction was £1.285bn (2012 prices), meaning some budget was not utilised (~£300mn). This shortfall mostly came from Pot 3 (offshore wind), where it is likely that the next asset in the auction stack was a large offshore wind asset resulting in the budget being breached (and therefore the project unsuccessful) and the auction being cleared. It is important to note that this will be levied on consumer electricity bills under current arrangements, but that the true costs to consumer will depend on energy market conditions when the assets become operational. Transparency to consumers regarding the costs and benefits of this allocation round and future auctions is important to ensure consumer buy-in on the net zero journey.
Tim Dixon, Senior Consultant, Cornwall Insight:
“Today’s CfD results demonstrate the critical importance of competitive auctions in driving the cost-effective expansion of renewable electricity in the UK. We have seen some strong progress, particularly in solar, and fixed and floating offshore wind, with prices that are both above record lows but below allowed maximums, reflective of the economic conditions faced by the sector.
“However, the reality is that there remains a significant gap between contracted capacity and the amount needed if the government is to meet its ambitious 2030 targets. Renewables projects take years to build and become operational and there is just five years left to achieve a decarbonised electricity grid. With AR7 expected to open to applications next March, the government must focus on enabling more projects to secure planning permission and grid connections to ensure a credible and sufficient pipeline for future development. This is essential not just for meeting our climate goals but also for maintaining competition in future auctions and keeping energy prices as low as possible for consumers.
“As we look to AR7 and beyond, the design and execution of these auctions will be pivotal in ensuring the UK’s leadership in renewables while balancing the costs to the public.”
"We have seen some strong progress.... however, the reality is that there remains a significant gap between contracted capacity and the amount needed if the government is to meet its ambitious 2030 targets."
Tim Dixon Senior Consultant
