Great Britain (GB) could miss its 2030 Clean Power1 target by over a decade, with growing pessimism among investors about how quickly the government’s low carbon targets can realistically be delivered. New forecasts from Cornwall Insight show that, once real-world downside delivery risks are factored in, the Government could reach 86% of generation from low carbon sources by 2030 – nine percentage points short of the Government’s 95% renewable ambition. Under such a scenario, the Clean Power targets might not be met until the mid-2040s.
The modelling presented in Cornwall Insight’s Renewables and Power Market Forecast, stress-tests how the GB power market could perform under the real-world delivery conditions generators and financiers are currently navigating. Persistent grid connection delays, elevated capital costs from higher interest rates, market saturation of certain technologies such as batteries, slower offshore wind and nuclear rollout, and continued policy uncertainty around long-term revenue frameworks all present challenges for market participants. Collectively, these obstacles are slowing down the time taken for already financed projects to become operational and making investors more hesitant to commit capital to new developments, a critical component of the UK’s broader net zero transition.
Although the latest forecasts indicate a shortfall against current targets, the renewables market is well established and strong future growth is expected, with existing subsidy schemes continuing to attract high levels of competition. Cornwall Insight forecasts renewable generation to rise from ~65GW today to around ~90GW by 2030. However, electricity demand is also expected to grow by 12% over the same period, meaning renewables will need to expand even faster to reach 95% of generation. Depending on the technology used to generate the power, Cornwall Insight forecast it would require either 24GW of additional solar PV, 9.6GW of additional onshore wind, or 5.6GW of additional offshore wind, on top of the already forecast rise, to meet government Clean Power targets.
The modelling shows that the target is still technically achievable under alternative scenarios. Clean Power 2030 could be met if demand growth is lower than expected – for example, reduced uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps, or no new data centre development – or if existing nuclear assets stay online for longer and Hinkley C is delivered earlier than expected.
Tom Edwards, Principal Modeller at Cornwall Insight:
“Reaching 95% clean power by 2030 requires a near flawless delivery of some of the most complex infrastructure projects the UK has ever undertaken. While progress continues, ongoing delays in network reinforcement and slower than forecast offshore wind deployment are pushing us off course. There are scenarios where the target can still be met, but they depend on very favourable conditions such as slower demand growth or faster progress on nuclear and grid upgrades.
“Investors are developing a clear-eyed view of delivery risks– they want to understand what happens if the timeline for network plans slips, projects take longer, or demand grows faster than expected. When you look at the system through that lens, hitting 95% by 2030 becomes extremely challenging.
“This is not about dialling back ambition, it’s about being realistic on delivery and focusing on the fundamentals – planning reform, grid expansion, affordability and investment – that ultimately determine whether targets can be met.”
Reference
1. The government’s definition of Clean Power includes renewables (wind, solar and bioenergy), nuclear, gas with carbon capture and storage and hydrogen to power. The targets exclude generation produced by energy from waste and smaller combined heat and power plants.
