Ireland and Northern Ireland are on course to miss their 2030 power emissions targets by over 20 percentage points, according to new data from Cornwall Insight. Wasted and unused renewables are cited as a key barrier, with renewed calls for increased investment in infrastructure and energy storage.
Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2023 and 2024, set a goal to reach a 75% reduction in electricity emissions from 2018 – 2030. However, new forecasts from Cornwall Insight show Ireland is only set to reduce power emissions by around 50% by the end of the decade.
Similarly, forecasts show Northern Ireland is also likely to miss its emissions targets by around 20%. With it’s Department for the Economy’s Energy Strategy setting a goal reduction of 73%, from 1990 -2030, and forecasts showing they will likely only reach around a 50% reduction.
Cornwall Insight’s SEM Benchmark Power Curve Report highlights that wasted/unused renewable energy from dispatch down - when the Transmission System Operator instructs renewable generators to reduce output or shut down entirely – is a key barrier to reaching emissions targets.
Emissions are measured by calculating the Million Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq). Ireland’s emissions are forecast to fall from 10 MtCO2eq in 2018, to 4.8 MtCO2eq in 2030. While an impressive reduction, this is a long way off the 3 MtCO2eq emissions ceiling. Northern Ireland is expected to lower emissions from 5.3 MtCO2eq in 1990 to 2.7 MtCO2eq in 2030 – missing its 1.4 MtCO2eq target. While the level of renewables that could be produced in both regions, if they were operating at full capacity, would reduce emissions if utilised, dispatch down is causing fewer renewables to make it on to the grid.
Dispatch down occurs for two reasons, firstly grid constraints - when excess energy risks overloading transmission lines, measured by the grid frequency. Secondly curtailment – which involves challenges in integrating renewable electricity into the transmission system. Unlike fossil fuels, wind energy is not synchronized with the 50 hertz system, therefore the grid imposes limits to ensure frequency levels stay steady as too much wind on the system could cause damage to energy infrastructure. The most well-known curtailment is the 'System Non-Synchronous Penetration' (SNSP) limit, currently set in Ireland at 75%. This means that even if wind could generate more energy, it cannot be utilised beyond this limit. In contrast, fossil fuels are easier to keep at the grid's standard frequency and are not subject to curtailment.
In December 2024, onshore wind faced a 10.9% Dispatch Down rate in Ireland and a substantial 38.4% in Northern Ireland.
Between now and 2030, Ireland emissions are expected to decline steadily due to policy decisions, aging infrastructure, and rising costs. For example, Moneypoint power station is expected to cease burning coal this year. Newer, cleaner combined cycle gas turbine and open-cycle gas turbine plants, along with increased investment in renewable energy and low-carbon imports from Britain and France, will contribute to the reduction. However, high levels of dispatch down are expected to slow the emissions fall.
In contrast, Northern Ireland is expected to see a near term rise in emissions due to increasing demand and slow renewable capacity buildout. Alongside emission concerns, there are also potential costs to dispatch down with a recent Irish Supreme Court case looking at compensation for wind farms who are redispatched due to issues with the electricity grid rather than the market. This has been referred to the Court of Justice of the EU, and could see backdated compensation as well as forward costs, which would ultimately trickle down to consumers.
Increased investment in infrastructure and energy storage to lower dispatch down rates will be critical to meeting emissions and renewables targets and lowering current, and potential costs to the end consumer.
Figure 1: Ireland’s Carbon Emissions Forecast
Source: Cornwall Insight SEM Benchmark Power Curve
Figure 2: Northern Ireland’s Carbon Emissions Forecast
Source: Cornwall Insight SEM Benchmark Power Curve
Tom Musker, Modelling Manager at Cornwall Insight:
“The potential is there for Ireland and Northern Ireland to hit their emissions targets, but the system needs to change. Without serious investment in grid infrastructure and storage, we risk wasting green energy while relying on fossil fuels to keep the lights on, making emissions targets simply unachievable.
“While both jurisdictions are on track to make sweeping changes to their energy systems, as coal and oil-fired generators make way for cleaner energy, this alone will not be enough to reach the ambitious emissions target. It’s clear while renewable growth is going in the right direction, dispatch down means it’s just not being used to its full potential. The clock is ticking, and both the governments and other stakeholders will need to think long and hard about investment in the energy system if they don’t want to see targets slip further out of reach.”
References:
- Figures for MtCO²eq for 2018 and 2030 have been rounded. This may lead to some discrepancies
Notes to Editors
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