Low Carbon Generation (GB)

Cornwall Insight’s Low Carbon Generation insight package provides comprehensive market coverage for energy generators in GB.

The service closely monitors and forecasts prices and trends of subsidy certificates for green energy generators, which helps to build a view of expected future Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) prices. The PPA market is covered in-depth, with analysis on the market share and PPA types for renewable and flexible assets. This is supplemented with a database of the current GB renewables development pipeline, and a monthly forum in which Cornwall Insight’s team deliver updates on recent regulatory, policy, and commercial developments impacting energy generators in GB.

What's included in the Low Carbon Generation (GB) service?

ROC Forecasts:

• A forecast detailing the latest trends in ROC supply, ROC demand and ROC values, in addition to consumer costs and RO targets
• A supplementary Excel databook to provide ease of use for forecast values - A quarterly webinar held after the issue of the latest report to discuss changes to the forecast, providing an opportunity for customers to ask questions relating to the report in real-time with the report authors.
• A quarterly long-term forecast (to 2027) of annual Roc values supplemented by a monthly forecast of values for Rocs for live Compliance Periods

Flex Asset PPA Market Survey:

• Current and forecast size of the flexible generation market, and a view of the contestable PPA market for flexible assets
• Twice-yearly (biannual) reporting points
• Market share and service capabilities across active offtakers and optimisers
• Visibility on typical PPA structures being agreed in the market, pricing levels and revenue share arrangements observed
• A view of deals, partnerships and M&A activity known across the market.

Green Power Forecast:

• Market benchmarks of typical PPA commercial terms, informed by our market surveys and in-depth analysis
• All-in revenue assessments across wholesale power, green certificates and embedded benefits over a 10-season, 5-year horizon, provided in an accessible databook
• Contract structure analysis - pricing and contract options for short-term PPAs, long-term PPAs, balancing costs and wider fees.

Green Generators Group:

• A monthly forum to connect with other businesses in a similar situation and ask questions to Cornwall’s experts and industry speakers. Cornwall Insight delivers regulatory, policy and commercial updates, with networking opportunities with like-minded organisations.

Renewables Pipeline Tracker:

• A database to support developers, generators, investors, suppliers and advisors better understand the pipeline for new build and repowering renewables generation assets. The database lists future renewable generation assets in GB and provide transparency to the market, including; development stage of projects by technology type; locational views on development by region and DNO; ownership structures and market share of developers; enhancing structures and PPA/route to market decisions (where known). Commentary is delivered on policy developments and trends across the development pipeline.

Who is the service for?

• Suppliers
• Integrated Power Utilities
• Financial Services
• Professional Services
• Energy Generation companies
• Energy Storage companies
• Manufacturers
• Networks companies

What are the benefits of this service?

• Experienced analysis from over 5 years of data tracking, providing key insights on how PPA markets and trends develop
• Industry data verified by offtakers in the market to help provide a detailed view
• Market-led insight on pricing, supply and demand levels in an otherwise opaque market
• All-encompassing values forecast under six PPA archetypes
• Revenue stream analysis covering wholesale power, embedded benefits and green certificates
• Trends derived from views of stakeholders operating in the market, and from survey interviews with active participants in the market
• In-depth competitor analysis to support route-to-market decision making
• Complimentary market activity updates between the main six-monthly reports providing key insight on activity levels and wider developments.
• Detailed forecasts covering the entire value chain of the RO (ROC values, ROC supply and ROC demand; consumer costs, RO targets), including updated within-year with outturn trends relating to ROC supply and ROC demand, removing significant complexity for the customer. This enables assessment of likely achievable value for certificates both during and before the end of a compliance year.
• A monthly forum providing information on current and upcoming changes relating to policy, regulation and the wider low carbon generation industry